“Avengers: Endgame” Box Office Predictions

Alright let’s just jump into this, you know what this article is about.  I’m pumped for “Endgame” so I had to write about this.

Domestic Opening Weekend:

The first thing that everyone is going to be wondering is the opening weekend prediction.  “Infinity War” opened with a chart topping $257,698,183, which currently holds the record for biggest opening weekend of all time.  I think it’s fair to say that “Endgame” will top this record considering it’s really hard to get tickets for the opening weekend even though we’re still a week away.  The opening two days are all sold out in Maryland in every theater I checked.  Let’s say the film opens in 4,474 theaters, which is what “Infinity War” had.  Doing some quick math here ($257,698,183/4474), we can say that “Infinity War” sold roughly $57,599.06 per theater on opening weekend counting Thursday screenings.

The average number of seats per movie theater is apparently 200-300.

To calculate percent seated of total capacity since I couldn’t find any sources and this is mostly guesswork, I took Maryland as my sample.  I couldn’t find times for Infinity War a year ago so I’m using times for Friday, April 26, 2019 for “Avengers: Endgame.”  The average number of showings per theater in Maryland is 14.214.  This translates to roughly 42.64 screenings per theater per weekend if we’re using the same times for Saturday and Sunday, which I checked and it checks out.  Doing the same thing for Thursday, we can in Maryland we can see that the average number of screening per theater is 9.857.  Using a seating capacity of 250 per theater (a number that I chose because this is my article and like I can do what I want), we can calculate a maximum number of tickets sold per theater opening weekend of 13,125.  Using a 2019 average ticket price of $9.03, we get a maximum opening weekend per theater box office revenue of $118,518.75.  In 2018, if we use the same number of screenings per theater, we can compare the $57,599.06 opening weekend gross per theater to a maximum of $119,568.75 using a $9.11 average ticket price for 2018.  This is 48.17% of total capacity with all my wacky numbers and stuff.  Believe me, I’m probably very wrong, but this is my thought process here.

Using that max opening weekend per theater BO revenue that we calculated for “Endgame” and the 48.17%, if “Endgame” performs exactly like “Infinity War,” it will make $57,093.25 per theater or $255,435,191.27 total opening weekend.  This is if it performs like “Infinity War,” but we all know that’s not going to happen.  There’s a certain excitement surrounding “Endgame” that makes it more hyped than its predecessor.  Seemingly no one wants to skip out on opening weekend.  Now we can play with a few numbers all revolving around that percent of total capacity of 48.17% that we got earlier.  My conservative estimate would be if less people see “Endgame” than “Infinity War,” and I’m using 45% as my number now.  If that’s the case, then “Endgame” makes $53,333.44 per theater or $253,013,827.5.

Now, there’s a lot of talk that “Endgame” could make over $300 million, which is very possible.  The maximum the movie could make opening weekend is, according to my probably wrong math, is $530,252,887.50.  That is if every theater performs at 100% capacity across all showings, even the midnight ones.  For “Endgame” to make $300 million domestically opening weekend, theaters have to perform on average at 56.58% of total capacity.  This is a pretty high likelihood barring scathing reviews and negative word of mouth on opening weekend.  I’ll say super a super high prediction for me is at 60% max capacity, which would be $318,151,732.50.  That is a lot.  A LOT.

The average MCU movie has an 84% on Rotten Tomatoes with a user score of 82%.  On Metacritic, that’s a 68/100 with a low of 54 (Thor: the Dark World) and a high of 88 (Black Panther).  For Russo directed films, that’s an average of 88.6% on Rotten Tomatoes, a 90.7% user score on RT, and a 71/100 on Metacritic.  Avengers films have an average of 84% on RT, 88.3% user score on RT, and 67.7/100 on Metacritic.  For Russo directed Avengers film, I’m not using Infinity War as my base since that’s just one movie, so I used all Avengers films and all Russo films.  This means average for a Russo directed Avengers film given my base is 86.3% on RT, 89.5% user score on RT, and 69.3/100 on Metacritic.

Domestic Box Office Total Predictions

The $257,698,183 opening weekend for “Infinity War” accounted for 38% of its $678,815,482 total domestic gross.  This makes a 2.634 multiplier for the total run, which seems like a good multiplier to stick to.  If “Avengers: Endgame” performs like “Infinity War” with the same multiplier, it’ll make $672,841,837.32 total domestically.  This would put it right behind “Infinity War” as the number 5 all time domestic grosser.  If it performs $300 million opening weekend, it’ll make $790,230,000 with the same multiplier, a significant jump.  This will put it at #2 on the all time domestic list behind “Star Wars: The Force Awakens.”  If we go for my super optimistic expectation of $318,151,732.50, you get $838,043,478.58, which is still behind the $936,662,225 of “The Force Awakens.”  For “Endgame” to outgross “The Force Awakens” with the same multiplier, it has to make $355,584,338.24 opening weekend or 67.1% of total max capacity.

Worldwide Box Office Total Predictions

Infinity War’s domestic total was 33.1% of its $2,048,359,754 worldwide gross (a 3.0175 multiplier).  Using that percent and my optimistic domestic total prediction of $838,043,478.58, we get my optimistic worldwide gross of $2,528,838,217.67, which is right behind Avatar’s $2,787,965,087.  For “Endgame” to outgross “Avatar,” it needs to have a worldwide multiplier of 3.3267, meaning domestically “Endgame” is 30.06% of its worldwide gross.  That’s not too far from “Infinity War,” so it’s very much a possibility that “Endgame” takes the top worldwide spot.

Alright so those are my “Endgame” box office predictions for now.  I’ll be adding a few things maybe tomorrow, but I feel like that’s everything I should mention!  What do you think about these predictions?  How much do you think “Avengers: Endgame” will make at the box office?  Please feel free to let me know in the comments section!  Thanks 🙂

Also, if you liked this article, be sure to check out my 10 most anticipated movies of the summer!

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