Hello, everyone! In this article, I’m going to try to predict the domestic and worldwide box office totals for some of this June’s anticipated movies! The movies that I’m going to predict are TMNT: Out of the Shadows, Warcraft, Now You See Me 2, The Conjuring 2, Finding Dory, Central Intelligence, and Independence Day: Resurgence.
NOTE: Predicting the box office isn’t an exact science and my predictions are probably way off. However, I just think it’s fun to predict and see if you’re right.
Also, if you haven’t seen my April/May box office predictions, feel free to check those out!
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows – June 3:
Prediction: $170m domestic and $550m worldwide
Here’s what I think – this movie is going to perform just like it’s predecessor. The first TMNT grossed $190m domestic and $490m worldwide. I think the sequel will gross less in America because critical response and word of mouth of the first movie wasn’t very good (it currently sits at a 22% on Rotten Tomatoes). Though the inclusions of Bebop, Rocksteady, Casey Jones, Baxter Stockman, and Krang (AND the recast of Shredder) should intrigue viewers, I think domestic audiences have become very skeptical of Michael Bay over the years. Sure, kids and TMNT fans will flock to see the movie, but those same demographics saw the last one. The movie will lose its general audience domestically because of the sea of blockbusters coming out at the same time and the loss of interest due to the last movie. With that said, however, the movie will probably gross very well in the foreign box office considering Michael Bay’s track record in China (every Transformers movie since the first one), which seems to be the new target for blockbusters these days.
Warcraft (or Warcraft: The Beginning depending on where you live) – June 10:
Prediction: $120m domestic and $400m worldwide
I really want this movie to succeed. Out of all the movies on this list, this is the one I’m most excited for since I’m a five year veteran of World of Warcraft. Heck, out all the movies in the year, this is definitely in my top five most anticipated. Also, I really like director Duncan Jones’s previous two films, Moon and Source Code (both are phenomenal works of science fiction and I highly recommend them to anyone looking for great and thoughtful sci-fi films). I’m sure the 5 million World of Warcraft subscribers will probably see this so that’s about $45m right off the bat. I think this movie is going to appeal to general audiences because it’s really unique – two worlds collide and there are two sides to one war. There isn’t a clear good vs. evil and the viewer himself/herself is going to have to make that decision. Also, it’s a fantasy film, which works really well for various demographics. Moreover, people have been waiting for a good video game movie for far too long now and Duncan Jones has repeatedly assured us that this is the one we’ve all been waiting for. The only reason I’m not going any higher than my predictions for both domestic and worldwide is that the competition is huge and I don’t think Warcraft can outpace some of the other films coming out in June. However, I think critical acclaim and word of mouth will help this movie rake in the cash.
Now You See Me 2 – June 10:
Prediction: $60m domestic and $200m worldwide
The second of the three major films coming out on June 3 is a sequel to a fun film I actually enjoyed more than a lot of people did. The first NYSM also surprisingly made a ton of money when it came out in 2013 and while critical reviews were mixed, audience reviews were great (meaning word of mouth was great). The addition of Harry Potter himself, Daniel Radcliffe, also helps since people will probably be wondering what got Mr. Radcliffe back into the world of magic. The great cast and the fun-looking visuals will probably get viewers in their seats with their tickets come June 3. However, since the movie is coming out as another major movie releases, I think NYSM will fall to Warcraft and it won’t make much past the opening weekend. However, $200m isn’t bad at all, but I just don’t see NYSM 2 doing as well as its predecessor did because of the competition it faces.
The Conjuring 2 – June 10:
Prediction: $40m domestic and $100m worldwide
I know the first Conjuring made a lot of money, but this movie probably isn’t going to make it past the competition. Though director James Wan is now getting a lot of buzz because he’s now the Aquaman director and though the first film was critically acclaimed, it just won’t fare as well as the first one did. Mainly this has to do with the loss of it’s primary audience, which is adults (since the movie is Rated R). Many horror fans will see the movie, but that demographic tends to be quite limited and horror movies tend to do well when there isn’t much competition. However, $100m worldwide is actually a huge number for a horror movie and the budget for The Conjuring 2 is probably similar to that of the first one ($20m – I couldn’t find the budget online).
Finding Dory – June 17:
Prediction: $300m domestic and $800m worldwide
Behind Warcraft, this comes as a close second in terms of anticipation for movies coming out this June. Finding Nemo is an undisputed classic movie (it even sits at a 99% on Rotten Tomatoes) and its fanbase has grown significantly over the last thirteen years. People of all ages will probably go see this movie as Pixar doesn’t really have a target demographic (even though animation seems like it’s meant for kids). The excellent cast adds as a benefit and the nostalgia will surely help in the accumulation of money for Pixar. Also, the lack of spoiled plot elements will probably intrigue viewers in the same way Star Wars: The Force Awakens intrigued general fans of the franchise. Also, Finding Nemo was a very lucrative movie (it raked in $380m domestic and $930m worldwide) so Finding Dory could be lucrative as well. However, I don’t think it’s going to make as much as Finding Nemo did because of the competition. Then again, I don’t think Pixar should be complaining about an $800m worldwide box office total.
Central Intelligence – June 17
Prediction: $60m domestic and $180m worldwide
Kevin Hart has a great box office pull when it comes to domestic numbers and Dwayne Johnson has a fantastic box office pull when it comes to worldwide numbers. When the two become paired together, I think Central Intelligence could be great. Almost every summer has its standout comedy and I think this is it since it kind of gives off that 21 Jump Street vibe in that two people get embroiled in an action-comedy that can appeal to various demographics. However, this movie is going to get dwarfed by the behemoth that is Finding Dory. Also, Independence Day: Resurgence comes a week later so there’s that. I do think that the worldwide take would be pretty good. Though typical American comedies don’t tend to fare well with foreign audiences, the added elements of action star Dwayne Johnson and the seemingly action-filled story will probably increase overseas box office numbers.
Independence Day: Resurgence – June 24:
Prediction: $200m domestic and $800m worldwide
It’s big budgeted, loud, and looks like a Michael Bay movie so it’s probably going to play like a Michael Bay movie. I’m a fan of the first film and I do think that there is a nice story to tell here (about how aliens are coming back to avenge their loss and how humanity has learned from its victory). However, this just looks a little too over the top. It looks very special effects driven so that’s good for worldwide take. Also, the first Independence Day was successful critically and very successful financially (made $300m domestic and $800m worldwide). The lack of Will Smith would lower the box office take by a lot, but the addition of Hunger Games star Liam Hemsworth and the return of Jeff Goldblum, Bill Pullman, and director Roland Emmerich (and the number one factor: NOSTALGIA) will make up for that loss. Therefore, I’m predicting a worldwide box office take on the scale of the first movie, but it will have a lower domestic take because of the fact that The Legend of Tarzan and The BFG come out a week later.
So what do you think about these predictions? Do you think I’m right or wrong? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section! Also, I know I said this at the top, but if you haven’t seen my April/May box office predictions, feel free to check those out! Thanks!
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