Ah, yes, December. It’s that time of the year again, folks, Star Wars is rolling out with full force and is set to dominate the box office kingdom for many weeks to come. I thought it would be cool to try to predict the box office outcomes for some of December’s biggest movies. This isn’t a serious prediction by any means, and I just think it’s fun to see how close we can get to the actual box office numbers. I focused on a few movies coming out during the month that I think audiences will see over others. Unfortunately, I couldn’t do many of the Oscar-contention films quite yet because most of them don’t have wide releases, and their box office numbers mostly depend on how widely their studios distribute. Please feel free to let me know what you think by commenting below 🙂
Star Wars: The Last Jedi – December 15
Opening: $220 million, Domestic: $750 million, Worldwide: $1.52 billion
Alright, folks, this is the big one. This is the movie to dominate all movies for 2017. Star Wars: The Force Awakens was a worldwide phenomenon that had the perfect box office recipe: a great story, impeccable visuals, and overwhelming nostalgia. It opened with $247 million domestically, an unprecedented number that I don’t think The Last Jedi can top. Episode VIII will probably not have the same nostalgic effect since we’ve had two Star Wars films in the last two years. While this points to diminished returns for the sequel trilogy, it’s important to note that the original trilogy faced a similar turnout. That’s not a bad thing at all for any of the Star Wars films since they’re still going to make an insane amount of money.
However, as far as week to week performance of The Last Jedi goes, I think it will be a smaller multiplier than The Force Awakens. Thus, if my predicted $220 million opening happens (about a 11% decrease from VII), I predict that the domestic total will be $750 million (a 3.4x multiplier against The Force Awakens’s 3.8x multipler). It’s important to note that $750 million isn’t bad at all, and I might be completely wrong. If it does go higher, The Last Jedi may have a shot at topping Avatar’s $760 million. That would make the two top films domestically both Star Wars. The worldwide total for Force Awakens was 54.7% overseas and Rogue One was 49.6% overseas. Averaging those two, we get 52.15%, adding up to a predicted worldwide box office total of about $1.52 billion.
The Greatest Showman – December 20
Opening: $10 million, Domestic: $60 million, Worldwide: $120 million
This movie’s domestic and worldwide totals are difficult to predict because musicals tend to be driven by word of mouth. They also seemingly have long box office legs given La La Land and Les Miserables. However, both of those films were major awards candidates and I don’t know if The Greatest Showman falls under that category yet. No one has seen the film yet and it might initially get stomped by the juggernaut mentioned above, but musicals are fun to watch and the star power should be enough to push this thing.
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle – December 20
Opening: $25 million, Domestic: $100 million, Worldwide: $250 million
Downsizing – December 22
Opening: $10 million, Domestic: $45 million, Worldwide: $100 million
Pitch Perfect 3 – December 22
Opening: $40 million, Domestic: $120 million, Worldwide: $200 million