November isn’t the most crowded month in terms of box office competition, but there are a couple of tentpole films coming out this months. I thought it would be cool to try to predict how they would do in the box office using some intuition about similar films. This isn’t a serious prediction by any means, and I just think it’s fun to see how close we can get to the actual box office numbers. I focused on a few movies coming out during the month that I think audiences will see over others. Please feel free to let me know what you think by commenting below 🙂
NOTE: I will be updating this throughout the day. Feel free to check back to see more box office predictions!
Thor Ragnarok – November 3
Opening: $120 million, Domestic: $300 million, Worldwide: $850 million
While the first two Thor movies didn’t perform nearly as well as these predictions, I believe the third film in the franchise will do to Thor what 2014’s “The Winter Soldier” did to Captain America. Moreover, Ragnarok’s Guardians of the Galaxy vibe (nostalgic, synth-based music and colorful atmosphere) gives me the impression that the movie’s opening box office numbers will be somewhere in between the first two GotG films ($94 and $146 million respectively). However, while I think the film will have good legs due to its high anticipation, good reviews, ensemble cast, and well done marketing, I don’t think it will reach the domestic box office heights of the first two GotG films. That’s not a bad thing at all as the those films were two of the biggest box office successes of their seasons. Ragnarok benefits from the worldwide box office success of the previous two films.
A Bad Mom’s Christmas – November 3 (November 1, 5 day opening)
Opening: $15 million, Domestic: $60 million, Worldwide: $90 million
2016’s “Bad Moms” was a surprising success with long box office legs and a good amount of critical praise. While I think the target audience of mothers will go see this, I don’t think it will near the box office heights of the first film simply because of the aforementioned “Ragnarok.” However, that has to do with the opening weekend and not the film’s total domestic run. Since there isn’t any competition, I predict a 4x multiplier on the opening weekend for a domestic run of $60 million. I don’t think the film will do as well overseas given the American comedic elements and because the first film’s overseas haul was 38% of the worldwide total. If the next two months weren’t pushed together with tentpole box office surefire successes, the film’s worldwide total would probably match that of the first film.
Murder on the Orient Express (November 10)
Opening: $25 million, Domestic: $70 million, Worldwide: $200 million
Kenneth Branagh is no stranger to film adaptations of famous books, and I’m quite excited for this one mainly for its huge cast that includes Branagh, Penelope Cruz, Willem Dafoe, Judy Dench, Johnny Depp, Josh Gad, Michelle Pfeiffer, and Daisy Ridley. I think audiences will be brought to theaters because of the all-star cast power and the film’s visuals, which look great. However, this weekend will face a ton of competition from Thor: Ragnarok, which would easily top the weekend. Moreover, Daddy’s Home 2 (which I talk about below) is probably going to top Murder on the Orient Express due to the fact that it’s a sequel to a really successful family comedy that also has a ton of star power. Thus, I think a $25 million opening seems reasonable. However, I think this film will have really good legs throughout November and will appeal overseas due to the cast.
Daddy’s Home 2 (November 10)
Opening: $30 million, Domestic: $90 million, Worldwide: $125 million
Daddy’s Home 2 is the sequel to 2015’s Daddy’s Home, which was very successful and had really long box office legs. The first film had a hugely surprising box office turnout as it made $150 million domestically off of a $38 million opening, which is an almost unheard of 4x domestic multiplier. This is even more astounding considering the first film’s lackluster reviews (31% on Rotten Tomatoes) and that the first film’s competition was Star Wars: The Force Awakens. With that said, I don’t think the sequel will make anywhere near as much money because it’s coming out in November as opposed to December. At least a December film can stand its own in January, which tends to have box office duds, but this November is crowded enough. I still think people who saw the first one will go see this so I’m predicting $90 million domestic and a $125 million worldwide due to the first film’s smaller overseas numbers.
Justice League (November 17)
Opening: $100 million, Domestic: $250 million, Worldwide: $750 million
While I hope for the best when it comes to DCEU films, I don’t think this one will reach the box office heights of previous entries. Unless Justice League gets critical acclaim on the level of Wonder Woman, I think the competition may more or less drag down Justice League’s potential. Justice League faces major competition from Disney/Pixar’s Coco (which I talk about below), and the two will battle it out until Star Wars: The Last Jedi comes out next month. Don’t get me wrong, a $100 million opening is a dream for any studio tentpole blockbuster, but this is Warner Bros’s most expensive film of the year with reported costs of $300 million due to reshoots after Zack Snyder’s unfortunate departure from the project and The Avengers director Joss Whedon’s arrival. However, as many box office analysts were quick to point out, Justice League can afford to fail due to the outstanding year that Warner Bros is having. Stephen King’s IT and the aforementioned Wonder Woman would most definitely make up for a potential loss by Justice League. Also, it’s not like the DCEU is in peril like some other cinematic universes (most notably Universal’s Dark Universe and The Transformers franchise). WB will absolutely continue to make these films so neither fans nor the folks over at WB should worry about a potential loss.
Coco (November 22)
Opening: $60 million, Domestic: $150 million, Worldwide: $500 million
As a huge Pixar fan, I’m looking forward to Coco, and I think the film will definitely appeal to younger audiences as all Pixar films do. However, Pixar hasn’t had a major home run this year as Cars 3 bit the dust in terms of box office performance. Due to box office competition from all of the aforementioned films coming out this month, I don’t think Coco will have the $100 million opening that some people might think it would. The marketing for it hasn’t been too active, and Pixar films on average open at $62 million. I’m more interested to see how the overseas game plays out for Coco considering its Spanish basis. This is probably the biggest animated movie for the rest of the year so it should have a good box office run for family audiences over the next month.
So those are my box office predictions for this November! What do you think about these numbers? Would you change anything? Feel free to let me know in the comments section. Thanks 🙂